lotomaxquebec|刘和平：美沙防务协议即将完成，以色列成最大赢家？

Direct News: according to people familiar with the matter, the United States and Saudi Arabia are about to reach a "historic" agreement that will provide security for Saudi Arabia and open up possible ways to establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. What kind of observation and thinking do you have on this agreement?

Special commentator Liu Heping:LotomaxquebecIn my opinion, although this defense agreement seems complicated, if we take a closer look at it, we can still sum it up in two sentences: one is that the United States is prepared to provide Saudi Arabia with advanced weapons and security as bait to tempt Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Another sentence is that the United States is prepared to use the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as bait to tempt Israel to end its war with Hamas and to accept a "two-state solution" to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

If we take a closer look, I think the essence of this so-called historic US-Sha agreement, which is evaluated by the outside world as "will reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East", is actually a secular deal reached by the United States and Saudi Arabia at the expense of abandoning their own ideas and ideals.

We know that compared with Republicans, especially those under Trump, the Biden administration and Democrats have always disliked Saudi Arabia, especially the Saudi royal family. The reason behind this is that the foreign policy of the Republican Party during the Trump administration is utilitarian-oriented and will not affect US-Saudi relations because of the so-called human rights issues in Saudi Arabia, while the foreign policy of the Biden administration and the Democratic Party pays more attention to values and ideological orientation, so it is very unhappy with the Saudi royal family on the so-called human rights issue, especially the killing of Saudi journalist Kashuji. It has unprecedentedly worsened the relationship between the Biden government and the Saudi crown prince.

Under such circumstances, the defense agreement signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia also means that in order to be successfully re-elected in the next US presidential election, and to create a secure and stable external environment for Israel, the Biden administration is prepared to abandon its ideological and values insistence and instead accept or even fully embrace the secular monarchy of Saudi Arabia. Similarly, during the five Middle East wars, Saudi Arabia fought against Israel, which believed in Judaism, and the United States and the West, which believed in Christianity, for its own religious ideals.

But after five Middle East wars, Saudi Arabia believes that what threatens its secular monarchy is Islamic radicalism or Islamic fundamentalism within Sunnis. Second, it comes from Iran, a Shiite country with a system of integration of politics and religion. In this case, the Saudi royal family chose to further form an alliance with the United States to confront the Shiite Iranian and Sunni militant forces that threatened its royal politics, which meant that they chose a realistic path of compromise.

It is worth noting that since Saudi Arabia is the leader of both Gulf Arab countries and Sunni countries in the Middle East, if the US-Saudi defense agreement is finally signed and Saudi Arabia and Israel finally establish diplomatic relations, that will set an example in the Gulf Arab countries and Sunni countries in the Middle East, and then these countries will set a wave of diplomatic relations with Israel. In this way, the religious conflict between Islam and Judaism that has plagued the Middle East for one or two thousand years, as well as the relationship with Sunni countries that have plagued Israel for more than 70 years, will be easily solved.

Direct News: in your opinion, will the Netanyahu regime really accept the inducement of the Biden government to stop the war with Hamas and accept the "two-state solution" in exchange for the establishment of diplomatic relations?

Special commentator Liu Heping: I think this is very likely to be a false proposition that does not exist. First of all, my judgment is that the Netanyahu regime will never stop attacking Rafah to destroy Hamas in order to establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, nor will it accept the "two-state solution" when the current conditions are not in place. I even think that the current Netanyahu regime would rather give up establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia than go its own way to eliminate Hamas, because Israel believes that this is not only about Israel's national security, but also about Netanyahu's personal political life. Once Netanyahu gives up attacking Rafah to destroy Hamas, his regime will immediately falter and his individual will be held accountable. At the same time, Israel also stubbornly believes that the existence of Hamas is precisely the biggest obstacle to the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the implementation of the "two-state solution" in the future.

My second judgment is that the Biden government should and will not use Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations as bait in exchange for Israel to stop attacking Rafah and destroy Hamas. In other words, the Biden government should not regard the cessation of Israeli attacks on Rafah and the elimination of Hamas as a prerequisite for the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

There are two reasons behind this. One is that the Biden administration simply cannot influence Israel's attack on Rafah and the destruction of Hamas. At the same time, it does not want and will not stop Israel from attacking Rafah to destroy Hamas, because there are no fundamental differences between the United States and Israel on whether to attack Rafah and destroy Hamas. The only difference is that The Biden administration hopes that Israel will try its best to avoid further civilian casualties and humanitarian disasters when attacking Rafah.

The second is because the United States will continue to promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, regardless of whether Israel attacks Rafah or not, or even whether it leads to a new humanitarian disaster in the process. Because ensuring Israel's security and creating a peaceful and stable living environment for Israel has been the core of the US strategy in the Middle East since World War II. This strategy will not be changed because of whether the United States is a Democratic Party or a Republican Party, whether Biden or Trump is in power, or whether Israel will listen to the United States and disobey the will of the United States.

Under such circumstances, I do not think the Biden government will give the Netanyahu regime a choice between whether to establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia or whether to stop destroying Hamas. The defense agreement being discussed between the United States and Saudi Arabia is most likely a preparation for the end of the war between Israel and Hamas. In other words, the United States first acquiesced in or even connived at Israel to destroy Hamas, and after destroying Hamas, it came to promote the "two-state solution" of establishing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel and resolving the Palestinian-Israeli issue.

　　为了实现这一计划，我甚至认为，美沙之间的防务协议即使谈好了，也有可能不会立即签署，而是会等到以色列完成进攻拉法的任务之后再签。这样一来，以色列就将成为美沙防务协议的最大赢家，也就是既可以如愿消灭哈马斯，又能如愿跟沙特建交。而这也应该是拜登政府内心深处真实的想法。

　　我的这一判断是有一个事实依据的，原来拜登政府是计划由美国、沙特和以色列三方来共同签署这个协议，但是最终这个方案做了重大的调整，只在美国与沙特两国之间签署。这背后发出的信号已经再明确不过，也就是，美国并不想以刚性协议的方式约束以色列，阻止以色列进攻加沙消灭哈马斯。

　　作者丨刘和平，深圳卫视《直播港澳台》特约评论员