slotsandvideopoker| SDIC Power (600886): Hydropower price supplements and increases thermal power elasticity continues to be released

Performance review the company released its annual report 2023 and quarterly report 2024 on the evening of April 29SlotsandvideopokerIn 2023, the annual revenue was 567Slotsandvideopoker.100 million yuan, + 12.3% compared with the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 6.71 billion yuan, + 64.3% compared with the same period last year. 1Q24 realized revenue of 14.11 billion yuan, + 6.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, + 26.1% year-on-year. Operation and analysis of hydropower: 23 years to achieve revenue year-on-year + 7.6% of the same period last year + 7.6% of the same period last year. 1) quantity: the pulling effect of new units on power generation decreases from 4M23, and the influence of incoming water on power generation increases. In 23, the water inflow from the Yalong River was about 14.1% lower than the same period last year. During this period, the online electricity consumption was 93.6 billion kWh,-5.1% compared with the same period last year. The water from the southwest of 1Q24 continued to dry up, with 21.3 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity connected to the Internet during the period,-8.4% compared with the same period last year. 2) Price: in 23, the feed-in electricity price of Jinguan to Su Power Group benefited from the rise of market-oriented transaction electricity price in Jiangsu Province. The average grid electricity price for the whole year was 0.300 yuan / kWh, which was 0.318 yuan / kWh compared with the same period last year and + 4.3% compared with the same period last year. Thermal power: macroeconomic recovery + downward market coal prices, performance elasticity continues to release. 1) quantity: 23 years of macroeconomic recovery superimposed water and electricity shortage, the whole year completed 54.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, + 15.3% compared with the same period last year; under the influence of the commissioning of No. 1 unit in Qinzhou Phase III, the overhaul of nuclear power units in Fujian and the low base in the same period last year, the power supply of 1Q24 was 14.3 billion kilowatt-hours, + 17.9% compared with the same period last year. 2) Price: the market coal price drives the fuel cost downwards. The 23-year feed-in electricity price is 0.472 yuan / kWh, which is-1.9% compared with the same period last year. 1Q24 grid electricity price is 0.463 yuan / kWh, which is-1.9% compared with the same period last year. 1Q24 Qingang market coal prices have dropped 20.1% compared with the same period last year, thermal power performance flexibility continues to be realized. New energy: photovoltaic installed capacity, electricity price structural pressure. 1) quantity: the sharp decline in fan and component prices in 23 years encouraged the development of new energy projects to accelerate, and the annual wind and light installed capacity were + 7.9% and + 133.0%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. In 23, the power consumption of wind and light was 63 and 2.9 billion kilowatt hours respectively, which was + 33.2% and 60.4% respectively compared with the same period last year. The power consumption of 1Q24 wind and light was 17 and 1.1 billion kilowatt hours respectively, which was + 16.2% and + 134.7% respectively over the same period last year. 2) Price: new energy has entered the era of parity on the Internet, and the large increment of photovoltaic installed capacity in the past 23 years has led to a structural decline in grid electricity price. The 1Q24 wind and optical grid electricity prices are + 1.0% and-33.2% respectively compared with the same period last year. In the long run, the path for new energy to enter the market is clear, and marketization will lead to the expansion of volume and price risk exposure. Earnings forecast, valuation and rating 24 years coal price center will continue to decline, water is expected to improve, the company's performance can continue to grow. From 2024 to 2026, we expect the company to achieve a net profit of 70.3 million yuan, 74.9 billion yuan and 1.06 yuan, respectively, and the current price of the company's shares will be 16 times, 15 times and 14 times the valuation of PE, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating. The risk indicates the situation of incoming water, the downward price of coal, the demand for electricity, the less-than-expected risk of new energy installation, the risk of volume and price fluctuation brought by market-oriented transaction, and so on. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.